現貨:

在兩岸利多題材持續延燒及各類股展開輪動下，週四台股呈現開高走高格局，盤面上以營建持續漲勢最為強勁，電子股則以雙D族群表現較好，金融股震盪較劇烈，所幸尾盤亦順勢轉強，終場加權指數以上漲88.56點收於6667.53點，成交量放大至1383.17億元，短線上量能可若持續擴增及月線能否守穩為盤勢觀察指標。

期貨:

週四期貨市場持續向上彈升，7月台指終場以上漲76點收於6590點。就期指量價結構而言，台指期不同於現貨的量增走勢，成交量及未平倉量於指數彈升中同步下降，顯示短期指數的彈升，有部分買盤來自於空單的回補。由於實質追價買盤不足，加上台指接近6700點即面臨實質反壓區，故短期追價應轉趨謹慎。月線目前仍呈下彎走勢，提防指數有回測月線機會。

選擇權:

從隱含波動率來看，買權隱含波動率由28.7上升至30.1%，賣權隱含波動率由31.6下滑至30.8%，買權隱含波動率上升賣權微幅下滑，顯示盤勢仍為盤堅格局，另從成交量來看，買權最大成交量上移至6700點，賣權最大成交量上移至6300點，透露出市場認為盤勢區間上移至63-6700點。

籌碼分析:

現貨部份三大法人持續站在買方，外資買超略縮手至67.34億元，投信買超擴大至14.57億元，自營商買超12.48億元，合計三大法人共買超台股94.39億元，買賣成交量佔市場交易量持續下滑至18%，當沖百分比下滑12.6%。期貨部份，投信減少台指期避險空單613口，淨空單2,033口，電子期淨多單減少2口，持有部位由多轉空單2口，金融期淨多單增加10口，淨多單72口，外資台指期多單減少918口，持有淨多單4,951口，電子期淨空單減少161口，淨空單218口，金融期空單增加276口，淨空單2,105口；融資券部份，融資餘額為2011.51億元，較前一日減少6.96億元，融券餘額為712,279張，較前一日增加3,136張。

  台肥 (1722 )    Jun. 12, 2009
Its Land Assets Speak for Themselves

• Disappointing 1Q09 results. Taiwan Fertilizer reported 1Q09 after-tax profit of NT$403mn or EPS of NT$0.41, down 58% YoY. The company attributed the disappointing 1Q09 results to a significant earnings slump from subsidiary Al-Jubail. In 1Q09, investment income booked from Al-Jubail totaled just NT$296mn, down 71% YoY from NT$1.02bn in 1Q08.
• Commercial property poised to catch the eyes of PRC investors. Taiwan Fertilizer owns massive land assets island-wide, with a book value of NT$26.4bn compared to their market value of some NT$62bn. Of these properties, commercial land parcels in the Nangang District of Taipei City account for 61.5% of the total property market value. As current available floor area for commercial-use office space only totals 25,751 pings (84,978 sqm) in Taipei City, we believe that once PRC capital begins coming to look for investment opportunities, Taiwan Fertilizer is well-positioned to catch PRC investors’ eyes.
• Residential projects add fuel to the bottom line. Taiwan Fertilizer launched its first residential project in Taipei’s Nangang District in September 2008. The sell-through-ratio was slow until February 2009. Fortunately, improving macroeconomic data and positive cross-strait policies helped potential homebuyers regain confidence in the property market. As a result, Taiwan Fertilizer reports a pre-sale ratio of 70% as of today. Although the earnings contribution from this project is expected at NT$240mn, it will account for only 7.6% of the company’s 2009E pre-tax profit. We expect the upcoming residential projects named R13 and R4-1 to add fuel to the company’s bottom line over the next three years.
• Our scenario analysis suggests a NAV of NT$118. In our sum-of-the-parts valuation, the market value of Taiwan Fertilizer’s property holdings makes up 55% of its NAV. Therefore, we conducted a scenario analysis in order to justify our assessment to possible property price fluctuations. As TAIEX is due for a correction, we see share price support at NT$85 under our Scenario 2 sensitivity analysis. For a 12-month time horizon we suggest a NAV of NT$118; this figure offers a potential 25% upside to the latest closing share price.

Source: Primasia Investment Consultancy Co., Ltd.

  裕隆 (2201 )    Jun. 12, 2009
Double catalysts fuel its growth

• Domestic auto market should bottom out in 2H09. From May 2008 through January 2009, this market experienced average monthly YoY declines of over 30%. Over the last four months, however, these declines have slowed to 5%. We expect to see a mild recovery in 2H09 given that the comparison base of 2H08 was extremely low, oil prices are only half their peak in 2H08 and the consumer confidence index finally started to show recovery in April after declining for 11 consecutive months since April last year.
• Land asset development in Xindian (Taipei County) is likely to kick off in 1H10, to be converted into commercial and residential use. The company originally planned to find a land development partner in 1H08 and launch its residential project for pre-sales in 2H08. This was postponed, however, as both trading volumes and selling prices in the housing market dropped significantly in 2H08. Now with the property market gradually recovering, Yulon plans to launch a commercial building project comprising offices, a hotel and a shopping mall. According to the company and our estimates, the residential project could contribute NT$5-$6/share to Yulon's bottom line within 3 years after launch.
• Our NAV estimation shows upside. As domestic consumption remains weak, we applied a 20% discount to our land asset valuation. In our sum-of-the-parts valuation, land assets account for 32% of the NAV. After its share price shot up by over 100% this year, it is currently trading at 0.7x its NAV of NT$40, in its historical mid-cycle. Valuation is undemanding from a long-term perspective.

Source: Primasia Investment Consultancy Co., Ltd.

  中華電 (2412 )    Jun. 12, 2009
Revisiting a Safe Haven

• Strong yield makes it a safe haven of choice. Based on our payout ratio and capital reduction projections for 2009, at 8.6% CHT currently offers the highest yield based on 2009E earnings when compared to its peers Taiwan Mobile (3045 TT/NR/NT$56.9) at 6.5% and FarEasTone (4904 TT/NR/NT$38.65) at 7.1%. As the TAIEX has surged 56% since February, CHT may become a safe haven of choice and receive strong market attention once again.
• Capital reduction close to NT$1.5 is likely in 2010. Based on historical trends and CHT’s intention to lower its return on equity to a level comparable to local peers, we believe another capital reduction is likely and project CHT to return 15%, or NT$1.5 cash per share, in 2010.
• Asset play is one step closer. CHT indicated that Taiwan’s Ministry of the Interior has approved some of its land usage conversion projects, allowing the rezoning of properties to residential or commercial use. It plans to develop the unused land (up to 10%-20% of its landbank) either with its affiliate, Light Era, or with an outside partner in the future.
• Potential PRC benefits in the longer term. CHT is teaming up with PRC telecom operators on undersea cable installation and a TD-SCDMA trial network. Such projects will facilitate more intense strategic alliances in procurement and R&D and create bigger scales of economy for CHT and its partners. Valuation is undemanding with good upside potentials. Our scenario analysis based on SOTP calculation showed that CHT has a fair value of NT$63.4 and offers 17% upside potential should the market goes bullish. We like its attractive yield and potential upsides in the upcoming events and suggest investors to overweight the stock.

Source: Primasia Investment Consultancy Co., Ltd.